BRICS+ Series: Iran’s Perpetual Uncertainty and the Limits of Prediction

Trying to forecast Iran’s political trajectory has been something thats tempted analysts into false certainty for a very long time. The country resists linear prediction not because it lacks patterns, but because its moments of rupture rarely announce themselves clearly in advance. Iran’s political history shows that crises often unfold slowly, unevenly, and beneath the surface of apparent continuity. This remains true today, even as global observers attempt to interpret protests, regional escalation, and elite manoeuvring as signals of imminent transformation.